Weekly Market Update (Apr 04, 2026)

Market Hedwig
Apr 4
2 min read

HIGHLIGHTS

No de-escalation in sight for the situation in Iran. Input prices increased globally as suggested by PMI figures.

Inflation: Oil prices increase further, threatening the near-term inflation data. Markets are pricing core inflation to moderate later in 2026. Households and businesses are feeling the impact of expensive oil, while Fed is calming the concerns about the incoming hikes.

China: The ongoing Iran conflicts have limited concern to economy in China. Export numbers reached 2-year high. The increase in input prices only partially shifts to output prices. Shortage: Some countries are more affected by the Middle East. There are fuel consumption controls, especially in emerging Asia such as Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Korea also announced a supplementary budget to alleviate the energy burden.

MARKETS

Nasdaq	21,879.18	+4.44%
S&P 500	6,582.69	+3.36%
Dow	46,504.67	+2.96%
10-Year	4.31%	-13bps
Brent	109.05	+3.54%
DXY	100.19	+0.04%

*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.

VIEW FROM THE STREET

Equity

UBS: Be selective in markets that are vulnerable to high energy prices. Consider sectors that are more defensive with secular growth and limited exposure to energy disruption. We suggest European healthcare and Swiss equities.

Morgan Stanley: We believe the equity markets are still a tech-driven one. When we decompose the positive earnings revisions, most of the improvement is from info tech.

Fixed Income

Goldman Sachs: Markets are pricing greater concerns more on the upside risks than the downside risks in yields, both front-end and longer tenors. Uncertainty premiums should continue.

Morgan Stanley: Before Iran war, the expectation of rate cuts was the main driver of the equity market performance. The market is discounting the future rate cuts due to high energy prices and thus high inflation. Even an end to Middle East conflicts may not be enough to catalyze the S&P500 recovery.

Economy

Barclays: Inflation expectation and consumer confidence have reacted less than expected. Rate markets are beginning to move from inflation towards growth concerns.

UBS: The longer the conflict last, the larger the negative impact to the economy and market. However, investors should not over-react. Instead, we recommend to use volatility tools to improve portfolio resilience.

KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER

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DISCLOSURE

This newsletter is meant for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. Advertising and sponsorship do not influence editorial content or decisions. Market Hedwig is not responsible for the promises made or the quality or reliability of the products or services offered in any advertisement.