Weekly Market Update (Apr 25, 2026)
HIGHLIGHTS
Another extension of ceasefire, which keeps the US-Iran deal alive. Strait of Hormuz remains closed, deepening the global energy supply shock. Central banks will likely to on hold next week.
- IPO: There are 24 IPOs totaling $14 billion in gross proceed so far this year. Compare to this time last year, it has increased by more than 80% in both value and number of IPOs. Markets expect it will reach 100 IPOs totaling $160 billion by end of this year.
- Inflation: Core PCE inflation is expected to decelerate. Market expect the consumption growth and PCE to ease in the coming months. Fed is likely to remain on hold while markets still expect it to cut this year.
- China: The recent data demonstrated an improvement in property prices and sales in top tier cities. It helps to stabilize the sentiment at the margin. The incoming PMI will be in focus.
MARKETS
| Nasdaq | 23,836.60 | +1.50% |
| S&P 500 | 7,165.08 | +0.55% |
| Dow | 49,230.71 | -0.44% |
| 10-Year | 4.31 | +6bps |
| Brent | 99.13 | +9.68% |
| DXY | 98.51 | +0.29% |
*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.
VIEW FROM THE STREET
Equity
UBS: US equities hit new record high this week. Oil prices also increased to the highest level in more than 2 weeks. We expect equities to end the year higher amid the supportive economic backdrop.
Morgan Stanley: AI-related and Mag 7 stocks was driving the indices to new highs amid resets of inflation swaps, growth forecasts, commodities prices and Fed easing expectation. We remain constructive S&P500 can end this year near 7500, while we believe the war’s impact will affect risk premiums and valuations.
Fixed Income
Goldman Sachs: Energy prices are still the focal point for the rates market, while it has less sensitivity and smaller response to energy upside.
UBS: The issuance of government and corporate bonds are expected to increase this year. Short-duration government debt helps reduce the risk of sharp moves in long-term yields.
Economy
Barclays: More economic data are supporting the stagflation case in eurozone. ECB is expected to hold its rates, while will be ready to act if needed. We expect 25bps hikes in June and September.
UBS: Risks to growth outlook remain due to the high energy prices, but we expect global economy to remain on a positive trajectory, and central banks and government are prepared to respond if needed.