Weekly Market Update (Mar 29, 2026)
HIGHLIGHTS
Iran war situation is escalating. Deadlines of negotiation keep on pushing, implying the negotiation power of US is not as big as market expects.
- War: The conflicts are dragging on longer than the market expected. The implication is not only high energy prices but a longer period. As energy prices are the core of the economy, the growth will slow and inflation will jump, consumer is going to pay for the consequence.
- Rates: Possibilities of hikes are increasing among central banks of major economies. Front-end curve is pricing Fed rate hike recently, and expecting ECB will have to hike in the next meeting.
- Supply: Oil prices remain at high level. It will not affect US much as they are export countries, while Asian countries like Japan will get hit significantly. Politically speaking, Japan has to maintain good relations with Iran for energy supply. ASEAN countries are likely to have shortage of food and energy if situation does not improve.
MARKETS
| Nasdaq | 20,948.36 | -3.23% |
| S&P 500 | 6,368.85 | -2.12% |
| Dow | 45,166.64 | -0.90% |
| 10-Year | 4.44% | +5bps |
| Brent | 105.32 | -1.02% |
| DXY | 100.19 | +0.69% |
*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.
VIEW FROM THE STREET
Equity
UBS: Industrial firms remain strong, as they are supported by the long-term electrical equipment demand and the contracted orders have locked a large portion of future revenue. However, high energy prices make the tech development that could improve efficiency more valuable.
J.P. Morgan: There is divergence in the AI story. Software companies are down by double digits, while semiconductors and component companies are up around 13% year-to-date on average. This may provide protection for passive investors, while offering opportunities for active managers to generate alpha.
Fixed Income
UBS: Bond markets are overly focused on the short-term inflation impact due to high oil prices. We think it is a good entry to lock in the elevated interest with short-duration quality bonds.
Morgan Stanley: US Treasury volatility has been elevated. 2Y yields have jumped by 50bps, and the likelihood of cuts this year has been eliminated. If uncertainty in inflation continues, the high rate volatility will weigh on both bond prices and stock multiples.
Economy
Barclays: We expect first hike in April and second hike in June if the high energy prices persist. Fed also emphasized its intention to hold instead of cuts.
Goldman Sachs: AI investment spending could support the EPS growth this year. However, when there is a shock to credit availability or the revenue of hyperscalers, that could jeopardize this spending.