Weekly Market Update (Sep 13, 2026)
HIGHLIGHTS
Energy prices rose again due to the escalating Iran conflict. Bond yields also went up, and rate-hike expectations have increased.
- Data: US inflation came in higher than expected, and the labor market is also supporting the case for a Fed hike. Markets expect a 25 bps Fed rate hike.
- Eurozone: The ECB hiked rates by 25 bps this week. Markets expect at least one more rate hike this year. The inflation outlook continues to deteriorate.
- China: The recovery in China is K-shaped. There is no sign of a slowdown, supported by export figures. Policymakers prefer targeted support rather than broad-based stimulus.
MARKETS
| Nasdaq | 26,333.04 | -0.66% |
| S&P 500 | 7,656.98 | -0.80% |
| Dow | 52,573.29 | -1.57% |
| 10-Year | 4.98% | +20bps |
| Brent | 104.61 | +8.65% |
| DXY | 99.10 | -0.06% |
*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.
VIEW FROM THE STREET
Equity
Morgan Stanley: Profit forecasts are ambitious, while growth rates are likely to slow in 2027. The deceleration is likely already priced into markets, amid lower valuation multiples.
UBS: We expect stocks to continue performing well as earnings are robust, despite 10Y yields remaining at relatively high levels. Equities are also less vulnerable as valuations have come down.
Fixed Income
Morgan Stanley: Policy uncertainty is higher, and investors would like to be compensated for taking on higher risk. Higher US deficits and debt, Fed framework enhancement, and currency activism by Secretary Bessent are factors that create more uncertainty.
UBS: Yields increased, supported by rising inflation and changing rate expectations. The market can tolerate higher yields when growth is solid.
Economy
J.P. Morgan: The labor market remains strong. Unemployment stays around 4%, and wage pressures continue to fade. Weak wage growth shows that the labor market is not generating significant inflationary pressure.
UBS: The near-term USD is stronger, supported by higher rates and growth. However, rising government debt is encouraging investors to shift away from concentrated USD exposure, which could support gold.