Weekly Market Update (Aug 10, 2025)
- Market Hedwig
- Aug 9
- 2 min read
HIGHLIGHTS
S&P500 rebounded this week and recovered most of its loss from last Friday’s weak job data. The recent development of global trade order is affecting the US companies and global financial system. All eyes are on US CPI and retail sales data next week.
Tariff: There is an additional 25% tariff on India. The damage to India is limited as its economy is domestic-oriented. The 100% semiconductor tariff could potentially be offset by the exemption for companies that are building in the US.
BoJ: Bank of Japan July’s meeting was interpreted as dovish, while the Summary of Opinions is regarded as hawkish. Inflationary pressure is still elevating and markets believe it is likely to hike in October’s meeting.
Geopolitical Development: Trump increased pressure on Russia to end war in Ukraine, which would be essential in getting a potential ceasefire. Besides, tensions in Middle East remain.
MARKETS
21,450.02 | +3.87% | |
S&P 500 | 6,389.45 | +2.43% |
Dow | 44,175.61 | +1.35% |
10-Year | 4.29% | +7bps |
Brent | 66.59 | -4.42% |
DXY | 98.26 | -0.43% |
*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.
VIEW FROM THE STREET
Equity
Goldman Sachs: S&P500 is still within 1% of its record high, while the dispersion has been high. The median of the stocks is at 12% below its 52-week high.
Standard Chartered: US equities face near-term headwind because of the overly bullish positioning amid the current tariff-driven market conditions. Fed rate cut is expected to boost sentiment eventually. Earnings forecasts are optimistic, led by the AI growth.
Fixed Income
Standard Chartered: Bond market is pricing a high chance of September’s cut after the weak July job report. We recommend adding US TIPS and switching from long-duration to moderate-duration bonds (5-7 years). Short-duration US High-Yield bonds are also preferred.
Morgan Stanley: In the last 5 years, one-third of new treasury issuance has been financed by short end. It has doubled the share of US debt relative to GDP to about 20%. That could make the US economy unstable and drive dollar weaker.
Economy
UBS: Economic data shows that the US economy is still resilient. and Fed is expected to cut next month. In longer-term, markets will keep an eye on the candidates that are likely to succeed Fed Chair next year.
J.P. Morgan: Consumer is slowing down after the rebound from COVID period, supported by the deceleration in sales growth. Household net worth has increased by $50 trillion since the start of the pandemic. Moving ahead, markets should focus on the labour market.
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DISCLOSURE
This newsletter is meant for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. Advertising and sponsorship do not influence editorial content or decisions. Market Hedwig is not responsible for the promises made or the quality or reliability of the products or services offered in any advertisement.
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