Weekly Market Update (Jan 11, 2026)

Market Hedwig
3 days ago
2 min read

HIGHLIGHTS

Q4 earnings season will kick off next week. Investors are going to shift their focus from macro to micro.

Earnings: Markets are going to focus on several things in the upcoming earnings, including AI adoption, corporate spending and sustainability of large tech earnings growth.

Job Report: Nonfarm payroll increased 50k and unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, indicating downside risks to labor market. Inflation is likely to be firm in the coming months.

Japan: Japan’s economy remains firm with wage hikes of 5% amid increasing risk from China. Markets expect rate hikes in July and December despite slowing inflation. Takaichi's expansionary plan is likely to ease under market pressures.

MARKETS

Nasdaq	23,671.35	+1.88%
S&P 500	6,966.28	+1.57%
Dow	49,504.07	+2.32%
10-Year	4.17%	-2bps
Brent	62.34	+2.62%
DXY	98.94	+0.52%

*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.

VIEW FROM THE STREET

Equity

Goldman Sachs: Companies' buybacks slowed down in the last few quarters, partly driven by the AI hyperscalers. We expect the shift from buybacks to capex will persist, and investors are going to assign scarcity premium to companies with strong free cash flow.

J.P. Morgan: It is rare that US equities underperformed almost every other major region. S&P500 looks weak in comparison, as the good of AI is more than offset by the ugly of tariffs.

Fixed Income

UBS: We expect high-quality medium-duration government bonds to deliver a mix of yield and capital appreciation return amid the combination of high starting yield and potential for them to move lower.

Morgan Stanley: US bond market just had the strongest total return year since 2020, supported by the Fed easing and long-end maturity yields stayed at a relatively high level. We expect steeper yield curve and continued normalization of long-run term premium.

Economy

J.P. Morgan: Tariff increased inflation expectations in US, putting Fed easing on pause and pushing fiscal stimulus to 2026.

Standard Chartered: US remains in low-hiring low-firing mode, while payroll is contracting in the previous months.

KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER

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DISCLOSURE

This newsletter is meant for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. Advertising and sponsorship do not influence editorial content or decisions. Market Hedwig is not responsible for the promises made or the quality or reliability of the products or services offered in any advertisement.