Weekly Market Update (Mar 15, 2026)

Market Hedwig
9 hours ago
2 min read

HIGHLIGHTS

It’s been 2 weeks into the Iran war and the ending is uncertain. Oil is still trading above $100. Hormuz flows remain low. ECB would hike rate while Fed is on hold.

Eurozone: Due to the ongoing war in Middle East and tighter financial conditions, ECB has to react and discuss its direction. Markets expect it to be a hawkish tone.

Japan: The oil impact on Japan’s economy seems to be manageable in the short term, but it could worsen, driven by the prolonged supply constraints. The US-Japan summit is likely to discuss the defense spending and investment in US.

China: No significant change in oil supply from Iran to China despite the disruption in Hormuz. Price impact of fuel is limited, combined with the lower oil and gas dependency and higher usage of renewables and electric vehicles, which have decreased the vulnerability.

MARKETS

Nasdaq	22,105.36	-1.26%
S&P 500	6,632.19	-1.60%
Dow	46,558.47	-1.99%
10-Year	4.29%	+16bps
Brent	98.91	+6.71%
DXY	100.36	+1.38%

*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.

VIEW FROM THE STREET

Equity

Goldman Sachs: Equities remain constructive. For corporate earnings, strength in AI investment should offset the drag from decline in economic activities. The equity market is surprisingly resilient amid the geopolitical volatility and high oil prices.

Morgan Stanley: Despite the highest geopolitical risk in 40+ years, US equity remain clam and trading within 4% of its all-time high.

Fixed Income

Goldman Sachs: Global yields repriced higher sharply due to the high energy prices. It is led by front-ends in Europe and UK. Higher inflation would delay Fed and BoE cuts. ECB also shifted in hawkish direction.

Morgan Stanley: In bond market, there is upward pressure on real and inflation components of interest rates. The chance of Fed to ease further is decreasing.

Economy

Morgan Stanley: It looks like the markets are confident in the US economy and believe that the current chaos is transitory. With much higher oil and gas prices, especially oil up for 40%, stocks are only down slightly on the week. The reaction is fairly muted in stock markets.

UBS: Volatility is high in commodity prices, and the political uncertainty also makes it harder to evaluate the ultimate impact on inflation and economic growth. However, we suggest to stay invested.

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DISCLOSURE

This newsletter is meant for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. Advertising and sponsorship do not influence editorial content or decisions. Market Hedwig is not responsible for the promises made or the quality or reliability of the products or services offered in any advertisement.