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Weekly Market Update (May 14, 2023)



HIGHLIGHTS

S&P500 was up 1.7% this week. The earnings per share (EPS) of S&P500 dropped in Q1 but was still above consensus (-3% actual vs -7% estimate). Investors believe that the worst phase is behind us now. Meanwhile, risks of uncertainty around banking stress still exist.


SLOOS: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) - an indicator of bank lending which released quarterly, reported a less-than-expected tightening of lending. Lending standards on commercial and industrial loans for large companies increased slightly, while the increase on commercial and real estate loans is more significant. Overall, lending standards are unchanged for most types of mortgage loans but increased for other types of consumer loans.


CPI: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in lower than expected (4.9% actual vs 5.0% expectation), reassuring that the Fed to pause the rate hike in the coming meeting in June.


Gas: Natural gas prices in Europe dropped to the lowest level since 2021. The demand is lower due to the mild winter and alternatives to Russia’s gas supply.

 
MARKETS

Nasdaq

12,284.74

+0.40%

S&P 500

4,124.08

-0.29%

Dow

33,300.62

-1.11%

10-Year

3.46%

+2bps

Brent

74.14

-1.54%

DXY

102.71

+1.48%

*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.

 
VIEW FROM THE STREET

Equity

Morgan Stanley: We doubt the mega-cap valuation will expand further. Investors are suggested to focus more on income opportunities in traditional defensives like staples, healthcare, utilities and energy over consumer tech and discretionary.


UBS: Despite the inflation data is trending in the favorable direction, there might be potential for disappointment on the pace of easing - inflation is still above Fed’s target, labor market is still hot and equity markets are pricing a near-perfect outcome of the US economy. Thus, equities are still vulnerable.

Fixed Income

Goldman Sachs: As the markets see higher odd of recession, they are expecting the FOMC to cut rate to stimulate the economy. The number of hikes priced in the bond market increased but the number of cuts priced in also increased.


Morgan Stanley: Be cautious with using long-duration bonds as equity hedges as it is likely that more supply is coming. Long-duration rates will drop less than the discount in equities.


Economy

Morgan Stanley: Fed is facing a challenge in timing its pause of the rate hike. The uncertain demand after the pandemic, the crisis in banking and the debt ceiling are some of the many factors that the Fed has to consider.


J.P. Morgan: As markets expect the Fed will potentially pause the rate hike, investors are shifting their focus toward the recession risks. Regional banking crisis and unfavorable economic data like the decline in job openings, tightening lending conditions and survey results of lower business spending and slower hiring plan are indicating a slowdown.

 
KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER

Spirit & JetBlue Merger

Here's all you need to know about the major airline merger deal.


Elon Musk's Twitter

Here's all you need to know about the $44b Twitter deal.


London Metal Exchange

Here's all you need to know about the LME´s nickel lawsuit.


LUNA

Confused about what happened to UST and LUNA? Here's all you need to know about the event!


 
DISCLOSURE

This newsletter is meant for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. Advertising and sponsorship do not influence editorial content or decisions. Market Hedwig is not responsible for the promises made or the quality or reliability of the products or services offered in any advertisement.



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