The current backdrop continues to support market buoyancy going into the end of the year. The Dollar downdraft is further extended this week, after the low CPI data and less rate pressure last week. The meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi is expected to limit the geopolitical tail risks.
Fed Minutes: The minutes reflected the consensus that the rates should stay at a high level until inflation reaches the 2% target. Rate cuts are completely out of the picture. Instead, the Fed is more concerned about hitting its inflation target, which it mentioned that further tightening would be appropriate if the upcoming data indicate slow progress.
Eurozone: The economic activity momentum is improving, supported by the survey data. The PMI data surprised on the upside, and inflation is expected to decelerate at the year-end.
China: New stimulus is emerging in China. Due to the stagnating consumption and deepening housing slump, the growth momentum in the last quarter is expected to be weaker.
*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.
VIEW FROM THE STREET
Morgan Stanley: Equities' outlook is optimistic due to the expectation of an immaculate soft landing scenario. Besides, the market is taking an unconventional approach that they view bad news as good because of the obsession with rate cuts.
UBS: Given that the valuation of the S&P500 is above a 15-year average, we believe the further gains in stocks will be driven by the earnings per share rebound, while we only expect a modest gain for 2024. Companies with resilient operating margins and low debt are recommended.
Morgan Stanley: The recent bond yield retracement is mainly driven by the CPI and PPI prints, which are interpreted that inflation is under control and the pivot is coming soon. However, the favorable data is tied to the energy and food volatility.
Standard Chartered: The refinancing schedule of the Treasury this year is skewed towards short-term bills. This may lead to the risk of a higher supply of longer-term bonds in the coming year.
Goldman Sachs: ECB suggested that the economic growth would disappoint the September projections in Q4. The weakness is likely to continue in the coming year. Wage growth is expected to stay strong, supported by the wage trackers.
UBS: The major risks of the market are the shifting opinions over the rate cuts pace, geopolitical risks from Israel-Hamas, and the concerns about the US budget process. Although the recent inflation data is encouraging, disappointments remain possible and central bankers are willing to change the direction of monetary policies to hit their targets.
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