Weekly Market Update (Sep 14, 2025)
- Market Hedwig
- Sep 13
- 2 min read
HIGHLIGHTS
S&P500 is still hovering around its record high, while labor market is weakening. Markets have raised concerns about such divergence. There are no major obstacles to cutting rates.
EU: After this week ECB meeting, it indicated that they are comfortably on hold. Market repriced the curve hawkishly and almost all cut pricing are removed for the remaining of 2025.
BoJ: Bank of Japan is likely to keep its rate unchanged next week. All eyes will be on its forward guidance and the possibility of rate hike in 2025. Markets expect the next hike in January next year. If the yen depreciates rapidly, the hike would be sooner.
Gold: Gold price is staying around its record high level, supported by the economic data in US which boost confidence of the rate cut next week. The recent rally in gold price are derived from the expectation of the second wave of easing.
MARKETS
22,141.10 | +2.03% | |
S&P 500 | 6,584.29 | +1.59% |
Dow | 45,834.22 | +0.95% |
10-Year | 4.06% | -3bps |
Brent | 66.87 | +2.09% |
DXY | 97.55 | -0.19% |
*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.
VIEW FROM THE STREET
Equity
Goldman Sachs: Equities usually benefit from lower yields, as long as the economic growth remains robust. The slower wage growth can increase corporate profit margins.
Morgan Stanley: Because of the soft job data, there is further market broadening beyond the megacap stocks. It also sustained momentum in cyclicals over the defensive stocks.
Fixed Income
UBS: Cash underperforms equities, credit and gold this year, and the underperformance is likely to continue. We recommend taking on manageable risk with the excess cash to improve return and offset inflation.
Goldman Sachs: Over 70bps of cuts are priced by the end of this year. Any signal from the Fed in the upcoming meeting is the key. Also, the reaction and sensitivity to the labor market downside would dictate the pace of cuts.
Economy
Morgan Stanley: Amid the backdrop of threats to Fed independence, dollar debasement and inflation, gold is a good hedge. The likelihood of political uncertainty is increasing, especially for the intervention at the central bank. We continue to believe gold is a great holding.
J.P. Morgan: As the downside risk to employment is becoming more obvious, a September cut is certain and an October cut looks more likely. On the other side, tariffs may affect inflation and further fiscal stimulus may complicate the outlook.
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DISCLOSURE
This newsletter is meant for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. Advertising and sponsorship do not influence editorial content or decisions. Market Hedwig is not responsible for the promises made or the quality or reliability of the products or services offered in any advertisement.
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