US equities were down this week, mainly driven by the higher-than-expected CPI. The frequency of IPOs is getting back to normal after a 2-year drought. All eyes are on the updated dot plot and projections from the Fed next week.
CPI: US CPI came in higher than expectation (3.7% actual vs 3.6% expected ) this week. Core CPI (excludes energy and food prices) increased by 0.3%, which is the first acceleration in 6 months. Some believe that the increase in inflation would increase the likelihood of rate hike, some argue that it may not be the case because of the firm economic data.
ECB: The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked rates by 25bps to 4% this week. ECB has raised rates 20 times so far. There is no clear consensus on the timing of the end of the tightening cycle due to the strained economic conditions. The endgames for policymakers are still far away because of the escalating oil prices, tighter labor market and stabilizing growth in China.
IPO: The number of Initial Public Offerings (IPO) is recovering, and the trend is expected to continue. Profitability would be important for the upcoming IPOs as the unprofitable firms are forced to self-fund their operations due to the 2-year long closed capital markets. IPOs with extreme valuations or high multiples should be avoided as they rarely outperform historically.
*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.
VIEW FROM THE STREET
Goldman Sachs: Rates recovered with the support of strong retail sales and inflation data. Stocks, especially the non-profitable tech firms dropped significantly this week.
J.P. Morgan: In China, we see momentum from the policy front including rate cuts and housing policies. However, the market has not reflected the optimism and the valuations are still depressed.
Morgan Stanley: Although the yield curves are expected to flatten into the phase of rate cut, the yield curve inversion suggests that the financial condition will drop further before the recovery. Investors are recommended to hold a fixed income barbell includes long and short-term duration.
UBS: Bonds are recommended due to the falling inflation and decelerating economic growth. Investment grade bonds with 5 to 10 years duration are preferred.
Goldman Sachs: The policymakers in the US are expected to increase their growth forecast, and the projection results will be released in the coming Fed meeting next week.
UBS: The economy tends to be in balance. Inflation is under control and the tightening cycle is coming to an end. Although the job market has cooled down, but not to the extent that will lead to a recession.
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