Weekly Market Update (Nov 09, 2025)
- Market Hedwig
- Nov 8
- 2 min read
HIGHLIGHTS
Given the absence of official data and stretched valuations, markets are more sensitive to news and alternative data.
Tariff: The IEEPA tariff hearing of the Supreme Court is more likely to rule against Trump, but the outcome and the timing are still uncertain.
Japan: Markets are still expecting a hike in January, given the Q3 GDP contraction. It is likely to be a supplementary budget when the new government aims to pursue a high-pressure economy. Both fiscal and monetary policies are more dovish in Takaichi administration.
China: Economic data at the start of Q4 is weak, supported by the contraction in exports, weaker consumption and housing demand. The weak demand is also spilling over to the supply side. Markets expect retail sales to drop further given the decline in credit demand
MARKETS
23,004.54 | -3.04% | |
S&P 500 | 6,728.80 | -1.63% |
Dow | 46,987.10 | -1.21% |
10-Year | 4.09% | -1bps |
Brent | 63.63 | -2.21% |
DXY | 99.56 | -0.16% |
*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.
VIEW FROM THE STREET
Equity
Morgan Stanley: The GenAI boom is driving the index concentration. Top 10 biggest stocks account for a historically high of 41% of S&P500. The bull market is increasingly dependent on the technology wave. When the GenAI story burst, it could expand to the rest of the economy.
UBS: The reignited worries over tech stocks valuations have triggered higher volatility, but we believe the fundatmental is still solid and the current levels are justified. Investors are recommended to look at profit growth as the main driver of performance.
Fixed Income
Morgan Stanley: Investors have raised questions about credit quality after the commentary of “credit cockroaches”. Although the industry indicators and pricing show limited downside, we see that in most cases the liability management exercises (LMEs) have not ensured financial viability and over 50% of distressed exchanges (DEs) remain CCC grade the year after exchange, and about 50% of them redefault within next 3 years.
Standard Chartered: The 10Y UK government bond yields dropped to the lowest level year-to-date. We expect a potential rebound in yields.
Economy
J.P. Morgan: Americans are expecting a large income tax refund in 2026. It will provide stimulus in the first half of 2026 and boost spending and inflation.
Goldman Sachs: The stagnation in US domestic manufacturing implied that the global economy was anchored for years in dollar as reserve currency. It gives US strong financial leverage and advantages, while at a cost such as chronic trade deficits and an overvalued dollar.
KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER
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DISCLOSURE
This newsletter is meant for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. Advertising and sponsorship do not influence editorial content or decisions. Market Hedwig is not responsible for the promises made or the quality or reliability of the products or services offered in any advertisement.
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