Weekly Market Update (Nov 16, 2025)

Market Hedwig
23 hours ago
2 min read

HIGHLIGHTS

US government shutdown ended. The state of US economy will become less unclear after the data release in the coming weeks.

Earnings: Q3 earnings reports have been strong so far. Markets are focusing on the incoming Nvidia report for insights into the AI trajectory and the health of US consumer.

Shutdown Ends: Historically, government shutdowns have had a limited impact on equity markets. Despite reopening, some data, such as CPI may not be released. Policy makers still believe inflation poses a risk to the economy.

Japan: The Prime Minister of Japan is working closer with Bank of Japan. Most of the members support the deferral of rate hike timing. Markets expect the hike in January as it can avoid immediate clash with supplementary budget.

MARKETS

Nasdaq	22,900.59	-0.45%
S&P 500	6,734.11	+0.08%
Dow	47,147.48	+0.34%
10-Year	4.15%	+6bps
Brent	64.39	+1.19%
DXY	99.27	-0.29%

*Data as of market close. 5-day change ending on Friday.

VIEW FROM THE STREET

Equity

Goldman Sachs: Returns within the AI complex have been concentrated in the infrastructure rather than the application. We expect the AI platform stocks will experience direct revenue tailwinds from the increasing AI adoption by corporates.

UBS: S&P500 gave back the recent gain due to the hawkish Fed comments and unfavorable market sentiment. Market is pricing 52% odds of 25bps cut next month, down from 100% a month ago.

Fixed Income

Morgan Stanley: Markets are looking at the lower-rated part of the credit market. There is pickup in credit stress between B and CCC-rated debt, which has widened to 30bps. Further widening could be a signal of late-cycle economy.

Standard Chartered: US government bond market was volatile in the last couple of weeks. Forecast of a 25bps cut was lowered to roughly 50% likelihood. We retain our 25bps cut in December.

Economy

Morgan Stanley: Markets expect the One Big Beautiful Bill in July could catalyze productivity and economic growth in the coming year. However, based on survey results, corporate does not intend to spend as much capital investment as expected.

UBS: The drop in US real rates will increase the attractiveness of gold. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold is lower, which could further support the gold rally. Fed’s easing will continue to support precious metals.

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DISCLOSURE

This newsletter is meant for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. Advertising and sponsorship do not influence editorial content or decisions. Market Hedwig is not responsible for the promises made or the quality or reliability of the products or services offered in any advertisement.